Saturday, April 14, 2012

SSEO

Here is another 24 hour graphic from the SSEO. This shows the probabilities of rotating storms including a spaghetti overlay of all 7 members UH tracks. This will get your attention. Courtesy of Greg Carbin, WCM SPC.


The NSSL-WRF is a part of this ensemble. The general idea I am extracting from this graphic is that there will potentially be multiple supercell corridors (and possibly tornado corridors). The ensemble suggests every major city in the Plains is under threat; Talk about potential hyperbole!

I know of one web page that has some information regarding these members if you want to see more detail from each member:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/hiresnwp/hi.res.nwp.compare.ncep.nam.nest.18.utc.php

UPDATE 1:
Timing for SSEO UH (remember 7 members):

The ramp up from the hires guidance starts at 2200 UTC indicated by the tallest histogram bar in the time plot. The largest UH values occur in the darker blue to violet shades between 0000-0600 UTC. The threat ramps back up after that too.

UPDATE 2: 4 more members became available from 1200 UTC. The ramp up starts at 19 UTC now. But the dryline remained dry in these runs. That does NOT jive with current observational trends.

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