Today is the first official day of the Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Programs' Spring Experiment. We will have two official desks this year: Severe and Convection Initiation. Both desks will be exploring the use of high-resolution convection-permitting models in making forecasts which include on the severe side, the total severe storms probabilities of the Day 1 1630 convective outlook and then 3 forecast periods similar to the enhanced thunder (20-00, 00-04, and 04-12 UTC), while on the CI side they will make forecasts of CI and convection coverage for 3 four periods (16-20,20-00, 00-04 UTC).
We have 3 ensembles that will be used heavily: the so-called Storm Scale ensemble of opportunity (SSEO; 7 member including the NSSL-WRF, NMM-B Nest, and the hi-res window runs including 2 time lagged members), AFWA (Air Force 10 member), and SSEF (CAPS 12 member).
We will be updating throughout the week as events unfold (not necessarily in real time) and will try to put together a week in review. Let the forecasting begin.
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