Well today the severe weather forecast area was from eastern CO and western KS. Although the hi-res models were producing some intense precipitation cores it was highly unlikely the atmosphere would follow suit. The deep dry boundary layer would be capable of supporting some serious downdrafts but without a lot of moisture, wet downbursts were unlikely. However, dry thunderstorms were the possible convective mode and all available evidence hinted at a line that would fizzle later in the evening.
Severe reports from KS showed up just prior to 0000 UTC right along with an OK mesonet wind gust to 58 mph. Now normally when you get a downdraft, it brings cooler air to the surface. In the case of a deep and dry boundary layer, there can be little in the way of temperature changes. This is exactly what occurred with the temperature going slightly up 4F during the big wind gust!
I went out on a limb and also proceded to forecast a 20 percent chance of heatbursts. A few models hinted at that possibility tonight (in the next few hours anyway). Verification in the morning!
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