Model Potpourri

 Spent time discussing the forecast issues of the day (and it lasted all day) for 5/8:
1. lack of synoptic forcing on the strong side
2. boundary layer (dry air HCRs initiating storms on the dryline, warm sector HCRs initiating storms east of the dryline in a narrow moist tongue)
3. marginal to sufficient shear for supercells
4. boundary layer oddities (mesoscale drying in the post MCV environment that advected north in OK, moist plume that got sandwiched between the dryline and the dry air pocket)



Model issues centered on reinforced outflows from morning elevated convection that never really took root in the real atmosphere. A few members of the ensemble developed convection off that feature but I think succesfully discounted that particular oddity.

Warm sector HCRs seemed to be a major player in central OK. Radar data indicated they were present but models have difficulty representing them. This may be a superposition of factors: models have strong filtering below 7 delta X and HCR width scales with the PBL depth. This makes them much smaller than the HCRs in the dry air (pbl depth 2-3km).

So yesterday appeared to be one of those days where the sum of all model guidance was much better than any individual member or even ensemble. Bits and pieces of each scenario played out in one form or another. No one model had it completely correct, and each scenario had its flaws. This leads us back to the age old question: What will the radar look like in 3, 6, 12 hours from now?

The models gave it there all and it turns out we needed to believe all of it. And yet none of it was exactly right. Talk about a new flavor of uncertainty. One thing I am certain of, we have a lot problems with certainty.

Maybe I will try to live blog today, a sort of note taking on the interwebz.