Reflections

5/20/13
I couldnt stop watching the news, maybe because I want to see these dedicated rescuers have a small victory by finding survivors. Especially at these schools. Schools. We don't know if these estimates are accurate. [Update: They were not.] We can only hope that some of these families find their loved ones amidst this chaos.

Its hard to want to write about the details of the forecast. I dont think i could have asked for better forecast models both yesterday and today. We had to calibrate ourselves with the real atmosphere to what the model capability was. I felt like that was easy. Discrete supercells, maybe 2-5, with the potential for tornadoes with some long track. We struggled with how these storms would evolve and if they would remain organized and continue to produce severe weather after 9-10pm.







5/21/13
This is crucial because not all supercells produce tornadoes. Trying to make sure we get the mode correct is tough but trying to get the evolution of storms is even harder. Will they stay supercells or will they form into a line with supercell structures, or will it turn into a strong squall line with high straightline winds.

This was one of the issues with the event down in Central Texas last week. It was a challenge with the Saturday tornado event in KS and Sunday tornado event in OK. The models only really give clues. No neon signs pointing out what to look for. As most of our forecasters know, you have to know what these models are capable of and what they are not. You have to know the strengths and weaknesses. The biases or persistent issues. You have to see what they do in rare event forecasts. The behavior of these models. This can take years. It takes a whole lot of perspective.

So as we wind down through a stretch of 4 days in Moderate risk areas, I think we are all glad for the break. We wish Moore, Shawnee, Prague, Cleburne, Grandbury and all other areas struck by tornadoes in the last week a speedy recovery. We hope that survivors can find their way back to a sense of security, a feeling of home,  stronger sense of community, and above all else we hope they find the strength to come back. We are rooting for you and will be trying to find ways to help. Godspeed.